In the context of global energy transition and carbon neutrality, sodium-ion batteries, as an important technical route in the field of new energy, are gradually showing their great potential to replace lithium-ion batteries. Today, we will review the latest progress of the sodium electricity industry in 2024, including industrialization process, technological development, market dynamics and future trends.
Industrialization process: steady progress
In the first half of 2024, the industrialization process of the sodium electricity industry showed a steady trend of progress. According to the statistics of the High-Tech Industry Research Institute (GGII), the first half of China's sodium-ion battery industry presents the following characteristics:
① The industrialization process is slowing down: due to the decline in lithium prices, sodium-ion batteries have no obvious short-term competitive advantage in cost, resulting in a slowdown in the commercialization process. In the first half of the year, China's sodium-ion battery projects were significantly reduced, with a total planned capacity of about 68.5GWh, compared to the planned capacity of over 400GWh in 2023.
② Material project planning capacity is small: in the sodium electric material project, the negative material planning capacity is small, and most of the project planning capacity is only thousand tons.
③ Breakthroughs at the application level: Although the industrialization process has slowed down, some breakthroughs have been made at the application level. For example, Jianghuai Automobile Group's new energy vehicle brand Jianghuai Yttrium has officially delivered the world's first sodium battery mass-produced model to users, and China's first large-capacity sodium-ion battery energy storage power station - Volin sodium-ion battery energy storage power station, which was completed and put into operation in Nanning, Guangxi.
Technological development: Multiple exploration
In the development path and support system of sodium electric technology, the positive electrode material is one of the main factors that determine the performance and cost of the battery. At present, sodium electricity has developed into three major technical routes: layered oxide, polyanionic compound and Prussian blue compound. The sodium-ion battery preparation technology of various enterprises is gradually maturing, and mass production or capacity improvement will be achieved in 2023.
Market dynamics: Shipment growth
In terms of market dynamics, the actual shipment of sodium batteries in China in 2023 was 0.7GWh. According to the research data of the Starting Point Research Institute (SPIR), China's sodium battery shipments in the first half of this year were 1.5GWh, and it is expected that the volume will be released in the second half of the year, and the annual shipments will exceed 6GWh. The main reason is that most of the application scenarios such as sodium electric energy storage projects, electric two-wheelers, and new energy vehicles passed verification in the first half of the year and concentrated on delivery in the second half of the year.
Future trend: cost reduction and application expansion
Looking forward to the future, the sodium electricity industry will show the following trends:
① Cost reduction: With the advancement of technology and large-scale production, the cost of sodium-ion batteries is expected to further decline. It is expected that by 2025, the price of sodium batteries will fall to about 0.45 yuan /Wh, and it is expected to be about 0.3-0.35 yuan /Wh in 2027, which is basically the same as that of lithium iron phosphate batteries.
② Application field expansion: sodium-ion batteries will gradually move from laboratory and pilot projects to large-scale commercial applications. In addition to electric vehicles and energy storage, sodium-ion batteries may also be widely used in smart grids, communication base stations, drones and other fields.
Technological innovation and performance improvement: Technological innovation will continue to be the focus of the sodium electricity industry, including improving energy density, enhancing cycle stability and reducing costs.
In summary, although the sodium electricity industry faces some challenges in 2024, on the whole, its rich resources, excellent high and low temperature performance, good rate performance, and high safety characteristics make it still have good development prospects in the field of new energy. It is expected that in 2026-2027, the sodium electricity industry will enter a stage of rapid growth, and enterprises need to accumulate momentum and practice internal skills at this stage to stand out in the rapid development of the industry.
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